A Special Report from the publishers of The Narrow Path Magazine

An urgent message from Steve Gregg

November, 1997

Updated June, 1998

The author of this report is the founder/director (since 1983) of the Great Commission School in McMinnville, OR, which is a nine-month, intensive, full-Bible, tuition-free discipleship training program for adult Christians. The school has a library of over 800 tapes of Steve’s teaching through the entire Bible and on hundreds of biblical topics. Tapes are available on a donation basis. A free tape catalog is available upon request. Since 1984, Steve has conducted weekly radio broadcasts in Oregon, answering Bible questions for callers. He currently hosts the daily radio program “The Narrow Path,” which can be heard via internet at www.christiantalkradio.com. Since 1994, the Greggs have also published The Narrow Path Magazine (formerly HomeAid Letters), directed toward the Christian homeschooling/homesteading community. This magazine is available also on a donation basis. Since 1972, Steve and his family have traveled to many countries as a guest speaker for conferences, churches, seminars, debates, discipleship schools and missionary training programs—he does not charge for these services and has lived by faith since 1971. His 520-page commentary, Revelation:Four-Views: A Parallel Commentary, was published in 1997 by Thomas Nelson Publishers, and is available at Christian book stores everywhere. For more information, write: Steve Gregg, P.O. Box 1274, McMinnville, OR 97128, USA. or e-mail: sgregg@macnet.com

Note: When this report was written (Nov. 1997), very little media attention had been given to this subject. The very month after the first publication of this report (Dec.,1997), almost every major newspaper in the country ran cover stories on the Y2K problem. Since that time, much more has been published on the topic.

Does The “Year 2000 Problem”

Present Dangers For Your Family?

An urgent message from Steve Gregg

By now you have heard of the “Year 2000 Problem” (hereafter referred to as “y2k”)? I became aware of it in May, 1997, when I received an unsolicited 24-page advertisement in the mail for Gary North’s newsletter, The Remnant Review. North is a Christian publisher and financial advisor who has been a leader in the Christian Reconstructionist movement for decades (Though I am not a Reconstructionist myself, North’s leadership in the movement has never counted for or against him with me—I have read some of his books and find them intelligent and stimulating). I don’t know how my name came to be on his mailing list, but I am very thankful that I received his advertisement. The last three pages of his ad recommended subscribing to his newsletter, but the first 21 pages contained information that has profoundly affected my outlook on the future of America and of my family and friends. Since first receiving the “heads-up” from North, I have spent many hours in researching the y2k problem at the library and on the Internet. No one knows for sure what impact this problem will have upon society, but informed estimates of the probable damage range from “minimal” to “the end of civilization as we know it.”

Since I don’t want to earn a reputation as an alarmist, I will present some of the relevant information with dispassionate reserve. Anyone who has Internet access can learn a lot about this in a short time, and I would rather have you get the information from there than from me. I recommend Gary North’s web site at www.garynorth.com for extensive analysis and multiple links to relevant documentation. Other helpful web sites are listed at the end of this report. Many who were initial skeptics about the worst-case scenario have moderated their skepticism as a result of looking at this information.

The y2k problem, also known as “the Millennium Bug,” has to do with a programming detail affecting the way mainframe computers around the world will read the date, January 1, 2000. To make a long story short, unless corrected, mainframes may mistake the year 2000 for the year 1900. (Ho hum, I don’t even own a mainframe computer. Why should I care?) Well, the problem is that lots of people do own mainframe computers, and cannot function without them. These people are those who maintain the infrastructure of modern civilization as we know it—people like the utility companies, banks, hospitals, major manufacturing firms, oil companies, the airlines and railways, the telephone companies, the military and virtually all federal and state government agencies—not only here but in the entire Industrialized World. These industries depend on date-sensitive files to a very large degree. On January 1, 2000, if all or most (or many) mainframe computers spew corrupted data or crash (two possibilities most experts are predicting), then what would become of our high-tech civilization? Of course, the answer to that question depends on how long it would take to get everything back on-line. Some experts think that it would take only a few days, weeks or months, while others project between five and ten years to recover from a worst-case scenario.

Computer magazines have been tracking the y2k problem for years. The Mainstream Media have been slow to give it major coverage (probably to avoid creating widespread panic). Representing a notable exception, Newsweek (6/2/97) featured a cover story on the y2k problem, entitled “The Day the World Crashes.” The story was fairly apocalyptic, though its capacity to inspire terror was slightly mitigated by the editorial decision to include comical, “sci-fi-type” photos and artwork. Since then, almost every major news magazine, newspaper and new program have found have given some sort of attention to y2k.

American Survival Guide magazine (Oct., 1997) ran an article on the problem, outlining five alternative theories as to how the problem, if unfixed, will affect society in the western world. The five alternatives, ranging from the most optimistic to the most disastrous, are labeled: 1) Speed Bump, 2) Slow Drag, 3) Severe Drag, 4) Optimistic Disaster, and 5) Pessimistic Disaster.

An example of the more optimistic “Speed Bump” theory is seen in a memorandum from the Library of Congress's Congressional Research Service (CRS). According to this government agency’s analysis, problem areas include:

—Erroneous flight schedules generated by the Federal Aviation Administration's air traffic controllers;

At the other end of the spectrum (the pessimistic end), Gary North is an advocate of the fifth theory, and presents cogent arguments and documentation for his forecast. If he is correct, the fragile, high-tech infrastructure of western civilization may be at risk. Have you ever had your electricity go out for 24 hours?...for a week?...how about for a year? Will your job be secure if you work for a company that either depends directly on mainframe computers (most large companies do), or that depends upon vendors who are dependent upon them? If your bank’s computers lose access to their records, how will they know whether or not you have anything in your checking or savings account? If trucking and railroad companies, which bring food and supplies to cities, cannot keep track of delivery schedules or even the whereabouts of their units (which are managed by computers), how long will it take for your local grocery store to run out of food (markets usually must restock every 72 hours)? If 45 million urban welfare dependents and 50 million Social Security recipients cannot receive their monthly checks from the government, how will they pay their bills? How much would you trust your neighbors, if they get really hungry? If government agencies experience a breakdown in their payment-delivery systems, how will they maintain police and emergency services? According to Newsweek, there have already been cases of prisons accidentally releasing prisoners prematurely because a computer glitch misread the release dates. Is this just the beginning?

This would make a dynamite plot for a new disaster film, or a great theme for a Bible Prophecy conference (a caller to my radio program suggested that the antichrist will gain the world’s admiration by solving the problems associated with a y2k civilization meltdown). Actually, I don’t personally link anything in this scenario with anything that I see in the prophetic Scriptures (with the possible exception of the fall of “Babylon the Great” in Rev.18). I am not so keen on the imminent end of the world as some prophecy experts are. I am, however, keen on being a wise man who “foreseeth the evil and hideth himself” (Prov.22:3/27:12). The great question is: Is there really any danger from which to hide oneself and one’s family, or is it merely another phony “the sky is falling” gimmick that someone hopes to exploit for money or to motivate the masses?

No doubt some people will discover ways to make a lot of money on the problem, but the information is often coming from those who actually stand to lose a lot of money on the problem. As for motivation, I must admit that I might wish to use the information to motivate people to prepare themselves in some appropriate manner.

The first reaction (and the second and last) of most people who are vaguely aware of the problem is to say, “Well, there are still several months in which to fix the problem. This is America, not Uganda! We’ve put a man on the moon and a robot on Mars! Certainly someone will be able to fix y2k on time!”

Perhaps. But people in the know are concerned. You see, ‘the fix’ requires the manual conversion of hundreds of millions of lines of code into the world’s mainframes by technicians acquainted with several computer “languages” that are not widely known or used today. Mainframes aren’t like your PC or Mac at home. You just can’t shove in a Norton Utilities for Mainframes and have all problems automatically correct themselves. Such a “silver bullet” is only a dream at present, and a dream that many experts believe will never materialize. In the meantime, a good programmer can go through and correct 100,000 to 165,000 lines per year. Most sizable companies have tens of millions of lines of code to convert. The majority of programmers are already occupied full time just running and maintaining the existing systems, leaving a shortage of human resources for the special task of “y2k compliance conversion.” How great a shortage? The Washington Post (March 2, 1997) quoted an authority who said that the US and the UK, between them, will require a million more experienced programmers than now exist in order to fix their problem before the deadline.

Additionally, the time required for testing “fixed” computers can exceed the time required for the fix itself. The necessary parallel testing requires that the system being tested have “free” memory available besides that used up in everyday business transactions. Many computers do not have this surplus memory available. Experts have warned that companies should have all their computers upgraded to Year 2000 compliance by the end of 1998, to allow the year 1999 for testing. .

It is now known that there is not enough time to check and fix all of the affected lines of computer code, so most companies and government agencies (if they are even working on the project yet!) have resorted to triage, that is, attempting to identify “mission critical” systems for repair, and sacrificing all others to “the Bug”. Many experts are convinced that even this scaled-down project cannot be completed before the unforgiving deadline, and even if they could succeed in this, other looming factors preclude any realistic hope of a total exemption from y2k disasters:

Just how likely is it that mainframes will get their code revised on schedule? To put things into perspective, the US government agency that leads all others in progress toward the necessary software conversion is the Social Security Administration. In 1989, the SSA discovered that they had 30 million lines of code to fix. They started work on the fix in 1991. As of June, 1996, their 400 programmers had completed the conversion of a whopping 6 million lines! Will they make it? You do the math, and draw your own conclusions.

The IRS is in much worse shape than the SSA, having 100 million lines to fix, and a very late start, with only 300 programmers on the job. Time Magazine (6/15/98), in an article entitled, “Why The Government’s Machines Won’t Make It,” reported:

On September 24, 1996, Congressman Horn, submitted to the full committee a report on the Year 2000 Problem. He reiterated that there is not enough concern among government agencies over the threat this problem poses to the operations of the entire U.S. government:

Time (6/15/98) reported:

A Reuters report (April 9, 1997) reports on a survey of Fortune 500 company information technology officers. Of those surveyed, under 13% said their firms had implemented plans to correct the y2k problem. Another 18% said they had developed a plan of action.

The nation’s two largest banks are Citicorp and Chase Manhattan. Citicorp has 400 million lines to check and an estimated 20-40 million to convert. They began working on the fix in 1995 . Chase Manhattan has 200 million lines of code. These major banks have been spending billions in attempting to remedy their computer problems, and many believe they will make it. However, smaller banks are believed to be doomed. And even the large money center banks must interface with smaller banks and foreign banks, placing their repaired systems at risk.

When the populace begins to take the y2k threat seriously, the uncertainty of their bank’s future will incline many (most?) to take their money out of the banks and wait for the millennium to click over. Problem is, the banks don’t have the cash. Since the vast majority of financial transactions are done electronically, and by paper instruments (like checks), there exists only about 6-10% of the nation’s economy in the form of printed money. If 10% of Americans request their money from their banks in the form of cash, those banks will have to close. This is what is meant by a “run” on the banks.

On June 13, 1998, Sen. Robert Bennett (R-Utah) released results of a survey of 10 major electric, oil and gas utility firms. The survey showed that only two of the 10 had even finished assessing whether their automatic systems are year 2000 compliant—and experts have said that companies that haven’t completed such assessments by now have no hope of meeting the Jan.1, 2000 deadline.

A June 16, 1998 Reuters article reported that 6,000 power plants and 112,000 substations are “at risk” because of the many embedded chips that regulate all the complex functions of power generation and delivery. Andrew Pegalis, head of Next Millennium Consulting in Bethesda, MD, is quoted as saying, “When you consider the number of chips that need changing, outages are almost a certainty.”

On June 16, 1998, MSNBC reported:

About 20% of the nation’s electrical power (about 40% on the East Coast) is provided by nuclear power stations. In order to preclude any nuclear disasters, the NRC has issued an ultimatum that any nuclear plant that is not y2k compliant will be required to shut itself down prior to Jan.1, 2000. Since no nuclear power plant is currently compliant, and they do not appear to be capable of meeting the deadline, we can probably count on power outages due to downed nuclear facilities as well.

On the other hand, I have always been aware that caution and foresight are a function of wisdom. The Bible says (twice): “A prudent man foresees evil and hides himself, but the simple pass on and are punished” (h/27:12). The ant is commended for anticipating the winter and making appropriate preparations (Prov.6:6-8), and Jesus instructed the believers in Jerusalem to watch for the signal of foreign armies coming against the city indicating that they should hastily escape (Luke 21:20-23). Jesus warned His disciples to see themselves as living in a precarious world (“as sheep among wolves”—Matt.10:16) and to exercise wisdom with harmlessness (apparently ruling out the stockpiling of assault weapons).

While preparedness seems to be a fruit of godly wisdom (unpreparedness would thus be a function of foolishness), yet the believer is denied the self-destructive and God-dishonoring luxury of worrying. The command of Christ to have done with all anxiety about future contingencies (Matt.6:34; cf.Phil.4:6-7) is one of the greatest struggles in the lives of many Christians—even when no obvious crisis is looming—and yet is one of the principal attitudes that is to distinguish between believers and “the Gentiles” (Matt.6:31-32). The believer’s faith in a faithful God sets the manner in which he anticipates the future apart from the way pagans do. We are told that we are much more the objects of God’s care than are the birds of the air, whom He feeds day by day. If a cynic would observe that the birds of the air sometimes starve, or succumb to the elements or to predators, the believer’s response is “not without the will of my Father”(Matt.10:29). The object of the Christian’s existence is not to survive as long as possible, but to live or die according as the Father wills. To die faithful is to be preferred over the option of surviving through compromise. Resignation to the sovereign disposition of Providence replaces fretfulness and anxiety for the instructed disciple of Jesus.

If, in the Providence of God, a believer receives advance notice of impending dangers, the appropriate response is, first, to ascertain the will of God (“Does God wish for me to face the danger head-on at the risk of

my life, or has He forewarned me in order to prepare an ark to the saving of my household?” Heb.11:7). Next, the Christian must consider what legitimate measures may be open to him for the fulfillment of God’s perceived will.

There is a real possibility that God may call some believers to remain or run straight into the danger zones in order to minister to the many unprepared people who will then be in desperate need. I would personally expect this call, when genuine, to be given primarily to single and childless adults and to others who have no other vulnerable parties dependent upon them for support. When I was single and childless, I always expected to receive such a call in the midst of disaster—and I looked forward to it.

On the other hand, parents with small children or people with other helpless people under their care should probably not anticipate the same call. Pastors, particularly, may feel that they (like the loyal captain), must stay at their posts regardless of danger and “go down with the ship.” Such sentiments might well be strengthened by consideration of Jesus’ statement that it is the “hireling,” not the legitimate shepherd, who runs away when the wolf appears (John 10:12). One should observe, however, that the hireling “leaves the sheep” in order to procure his own safety. Would he not be a more wise and responsible shepherd were he to make preparation to take the sheep with him to a place of safety when he sees a storm approaching which is about to transform the peaceful valley, where his sheep have been grazing securely, into Lake Superior? Noah was a preacher of righteousness until the flood was imminent. He did not stay out preaching in the rain, but joined the remnant (his family) in the ark seven days before the windows of heaven were opened. When judgment fell, Noah’s calling as a preacher of righteousness was exchanged for a career in nurturing his family in a safe place.

Remember, the safest place for the family of the righteous is not necessarily in a mountain cave while Sodom is being reduced to a smoldering crater. The safest place for the Christian family is in the center of the will of God, wherever that may be. Nonetheless, it should not be assumed that the place of God’s will for the believer is necessarily along the trajectory of His terrible swift sword. In Scripture, more often than not, God called His informed followers to get out of the “line of fire” to a more sensible venue.

When they persecute you in one city, flee to the next. (Matthew 10:23)

Flight, can be very inconvenient and generally involves the leaving behind of cherished possessions and relationships (ask Lot’s wife!). Many people would prefer to take their chances in the danger zone, so long as they have an AK-47 for every able-bodied male in the home, plenty of ammunition, sandbags and MREs (Meals Ready to Eat packaged for long-term storage). In my opinion, this “Alamo Model” of survival is not ideal for Christians. Those who die trying to kill others in a dispute over a loaf of bread are not to be classed among the martyrs, who die for the glory of God alone.

I can think of no reason to object to the idea of storing food. The ant is commended for storing enough food for the short-range future (Prov.6:8), and Joseph stored enough for seven years. In fact, if you currently visit the supermarket only once or twice a week, you are already practicing “food storage” beyond the amount demanded for “immediate” needs. However, there are two factors that prevent the Christian from finding any real security in freeze-dried calories stockpiled in the root cellar:

Faith and wisdom would dictate that a family store some reasonable amount of goods against temporary shortages (along with some non-hybrid vegetable seeds for the spring garden—remember, y2k is going to arrive in January), fully intending to share with others in need, and trusting that God, if necessary, can perform another miracle of the loaves.

Better still, relocate somewhere (like out of the city) where food shortages will not be so severe, and persuade as many people as possible to do the same!

There are a number of ways that Christians might legitimately respond to news such as that I am presenting about the possibilities of a y2k problem. The first is to do some first-hand research on the subject in order to determine whether this is just much ado about nothing. If you do this, let me recommend that you not accept the first opinion you hear without further inquiry. You might think that your friend who works for Texas Instruments in research and development ought to know a great deal about this “tekkie computer stuff.” He might. But there is no guarantee that he has studied the question or has access to better sources of information than are available to you. If he has heard of y2k, his supervisors may have told him, “Don’t sweat it. Your job is secure.” I have personally talked to several such technicians over the past few months, some of whom appeared to have never heard of the y2k problem before I brought it up. Their off-the-cuff assessment was, “No problem. It’ll get fixed.” On the other hand, the technicians I have talked to who had researched the matter were much more alarmed.

Since a satisfactory fix by any presently-known means is apparently impossible, most people who stand to lose a lot in a y2k disaster tend to retreat to denial when confronted by the enormity of the problem. The Newsweek story alone should have triggered a significant general panic—but it didn’t. Most people don’t even remember seeing that cover story. Few, apparently read it. In a book entitled The Sovereign Individual, authors Davidson and Rees-Mogg wrote:

If your research leads you to conclude that we are facing a mild-to-cataclysmic disaster, you should begin to consider some responsible response options. Some of those that I am about to suggest may seem far-fetched, but each of them has been chosen by persons who have no history of clinical mental illness. Here are some of the factors which I would encourage you to consider:

A. Location. In any crisis, a family’s location can literally be the most important variable determining survival. Some people simply find themselves “in the wrong place at the wrong time” (remember Reginald Denney?). Some of you are already in about the best possible place a person can be during a societal meltdown. Others are arguably in the very worst of possible locations. Please consider the following alternatives:

1. Stay where you are. The Psalmist wrote: “In the Lord I put my trust; how can you say to my soul, ‘Flee as a bird to your mountain?’”(Psalm 11:1). You may already be where God wants you to be stationed for a long time, where, you are confident, you should take your stand by faith and let the chips fall where they may. Some of those reading this may even already be in the ideal situation optimally to ride out such a disaster as is envisaged by some for y2k. The ability to produce your own food on your property, coupled with close, positive relationships with your neighbors are important factors in determining the desirability of staying where you already live.

If, however, you have a family and live in an urban or suburban center, you may wish to consider whether relocation may be the better part of valor. If even 50% of the worst-case scenarios for y2k actually materialize, then cities will possibly be without predictable replenishment of groceries and other shipped-in commodities. With phone service and the power grid on the fritz, and the police force disabled or disoriented, the only element in the cities that stands to gain from this scenario is the criminal gangs, whose predatory lifestyles would require the least readjustment of anyone’s. God is able to keep His people unblistered in the fiery furnace, if that is where they must be, though choosing to make one’s home in the brick kiln might well qualify as “tempting the Lord.”

If you must stay in the city, you should at least make some of the preparations that will outlined further along in this report. Be sure that you have established positive and cooperative relationships with your near neighbors. If possible, persuade them to make sufficient preparations for themselves so that they don’t become overly dependent on you in a crisis situation. Additionally, be sure that you have church relationships and/or family relationships wherein you and others committed to you can be of service and support to each other.

2. Buy or lease farm acreage. This would seem to be a more sensible option than that of staying in the city. The first major city was built in rebellion against God (Genesis 11), and its successors have generally been worthy reincarnations of the same spirit. Christians are often called to the city for outreach purposes (that’s where the lost may be found in large concentrations), though I suspect that most city dwellers are there for the purpose of convenience or prosperity.

In the recent past, movement of the population into metropolitan areas facilitated an increase in such convenience and prosperity, though a serious y2k economic meltdown would transform cities into anything but convenient or prosperous places to be caught. There is already a noticeable trend of population movement from urban and suburban properties to more rural alternatives. If the masses get wind of the impending y2k crash, this movement may become a stampede. Properties for sale in the cities will be unsaleable, while the value of rural acreage will soar, due to the increased demand of the homeless refugees from cities (sounds like a Godzilla movie, without Godzilla). If you have been thinking seriously about moving to a small farm property, it would be wise to do so now. There may not be enough to go around by mid-1999. If you move to the country, and the y2k bomb proves to be nothing but a firecracker, what have you lost? You now have a more self-sufficient life much more like the one you have long desired.

In view of the 45 million welfare recipients whose checks may not be in the mail, some y2k-watchers suggest that it would not be wise to be living within a half-hour’s drive of a city with a population above 20,000—nor within 100 miles of a city of more than 100,000. This may be over-cautious, but the rule of thumb would be to provide as large a buffer between your family and urban violence as your calling in God allows.

A move to the country involves some possibly difficult adjustments for those accustomed to the convenience of 7-Eleven and the stimulation provided by flashing neon lights, those microcosmic universes called “malls” and perennially congested traffic arteries (to say nothing of the excitement of drive-by shootings, schoolyard homicides, and S.W.A.T. teams besieging the drug house next door). The difficulties of such adjustment, however, may not be so great as the benefits. City life is artificial life (which is not to say it is wrong), and is sustained by an artificial infrastructure over which the individual has no control, but upon which his life depends. The Bible affirms the desirability of farming your own land in times of crisis:

If you are not in a financial position to buy rural acreage, there may be the option of renting, leasing or sharecropping five or ten acres on the edge of a larger farm. For a few thousand dollars, a used mobile home

could be put there for a scaled-down, but more self-sufficient lifestyle for your family. Alternately, several families might combine their resources and purchase large acreage in some state where building restrictions are minimal or nonexistent and then build homes there.

Jesus described Himself as a permanent traveler when He told a would-be follower: “Foxes have holes, and birds of the air have nests; but the Son of man hath not where to lay his head” (Luke 9:58), and Peter described Christians generally as “strangers and pilgrims”(1 Pet.2:11), though he was speaking of our relationship to the world generally, rather than of a nomadic lifestyle. While nothing in Scripture forbids such a “PT” lifestyle, and it presents certain advantages of anonymity for those who can afford it, I suspect that few Christian families would find it ideal for the meeting of the social needs of themselves or their children. Also, a y2k breakdown would almost certainly interrupt all regular air transportation as well as the availability of motor vehicle fuel. This would presumably seriously cramp the style of the free-wheeling “PT.”

4. Relocate to a less-industrialized country. Is it time to respond to that missionary call you’ve felt for so long? You know, the first missionary efforts to occur outside Jerusalem were those of believers scattered from Jerusalem to foreign lands in order to escape the new dangers that arose in Jerusalem. It is possible that y2k may become the greatest boon to world missions, if devoted Christian families stage a mass exodus from industrialized nations to those regions less dependent upon technology. Common sense would suggest that, if mainframe computers crash, the societies least affected will be those least dependent upon a high-tech infrastructure. Vanuatu (formerly New Hebrides) would, in that case, be the nation least affected by y2k, since it is the least industrialized nation in the world (it is affected, however, by cyclones and active volcanoes). In Vanuatu, 85% of the population (the same as the percentage that profess to be Christians) never have dealings with money, but survive by subsistence farming and bartering (the alleged “cashless society” expected by many prophecy buffs would not affect these people in the least). Of course, until about a generation ago, some of these people found an important protein source in the persons of their neighbors. Needless to say, for an American to relocate to Vanuatu (if he could get permission to immigrate, which is somewhere between doubtful and impossible) would involve a fair amount of culture shock. Only hard-core missionary types need apply.

The same considerations apply to many other Third World nations. In any society, “immunity to computer crashes” will vary along the same scale as “cultural distance from western lifestyles.” Mexico or other Latin American countries are considerably more accessible to North Americans, and are also less culturally distant, though immigration to a foreign country requires careful planning and the jumping through of legal hoops for which there may not be enough time remaining. At the risk of sounding overly cynical, I would also suggest that Third World peoples, who presently treat white American visitors with respect, might find less reason to tolerate their presence at a future time when the US is no longer wealthy, powerful and intimidating.

5. Escape to the woods. The prospect of fleeing to and surviving in the wilderness has held a mystique and attraction for many Americans (including myself) for as long as I can remember. This option has appealed

especially to those who link an impending crisis with an expected eschatological scenario, like the anticipated seven-year tribulation. I know people who have made elaborate preparations for an escape into a particular wilderness area, where they have been storing food and supplies for several years now. This option is a

necessary one if those people are correct in believing that we are about to see the emergence of a great one-world government under antichrist. If such were to materialize, then no town, city or foreign country would be safe for Christians. There’d be nothing for it but to go underground. Such wilderness survival has scriptural warrant. David fled into the wilderness to escape Saul’s persecution (1 Sam.21:5). Jesus instructed His disciples in Jerusalem to flee to the mountains at the approach of the Roman armies (Luke 21:20-21), and the sun-clad woman in Revelation flees to the wilderness to be sustained by God for 1260 days (Rev.12:6, 14).

The extreme inconvenience associated with this option would render it undesirable to most families except in the case of absolute necessity. The conviction that the popular tribulation scenario is about to be realized provides the best motivation for planning for this wilderness survival experience. If the tribulation is not in fact around the corner, and if remaining above ground in a situation that allows one to raise crops and livestock is an actual option, I would expect most families to opt for the beef over the wild game and for their garden vegetables over a bowl of acorns. However, acorns are better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. And even a poke in the eye with a sharp stick is to be preferred over police-motorcycle-mounted mini-guillotines such as one sees depicted in Jack Chick’s tract, The Beast.

I suppose that one’s eschatology (view of end times events) will necessarily play a large role in shaping his perception of and response to the y2k problem. If there is a one-world government of the antichrist predicted in Scripture and about to appear in our time (neither of which is certain), then even y2k will not slow him down. In fact, something as major as the y2k problem can hardly avoid finding some place in the modern prophecy expert’s scenario. Perhaps only the antichrist can clean-up the mess caused by y2k?

Though seldom mentioned, such a tribulation scenario may possibly be absent from Scripture, when rightly exegeted. Wouldn’t it be nice if the ominous New World Order, with its welfare state and cashless, electronic economy proved only to be another case of mistaken identity by prophecy speculators, who have already in this century misidentified the antichrist with Mussolini, Hitler’s Third Reich, Soviet Stalinism, Henry Kissinger, the European Economic Community, and Jimmy Carter? If there is no prophetic inevitability of these things (a very realistic possibility), then y2k would look more like the end of the New World Order than its next developmental stage. How, for example, could the much-discussed computer chips planted in the hand be monitored without the cellular infrastructure of our computer-dependent telecommunications systems? Or for that matter, how could any leader control people even on a state-wide (to say nothing of nationwide or international) scale without modern mainframe computers? It would seem impossible. And the conviction that such a one-world society must come as a fulfillment of prophecy may be some people’s only reason for discounting the likelihood of a y2k disaster. It is the only threatened global crisis that doesn’t fit anybody’s prophetic timetable!

B. Fellowship. There is little to be gained by individual Christians scattering into isolated survival bunkers. The greatest earthly resource that God has given Christians is the Body of Christ. Whichever of the above options is chosen, it would work best if Christian families would choose them corporately. I know of several families who intend to flee into the wilderness together. International flight would be much easier to adjust to if there were several like-minded families relocating to the same target location. Even staying stateside and above ground, churches as we have known them may cease to exist, and communities of clustered Christian families may replace them, either temporarily or permanently. Some friends of mine are thinking in terms of several families purchasing a large acreage together or else several smaller nearby or adjacent acreages individually. If I had a million bucks (which, I expect, will never happen), I would buy several hundred acres in rural America and a few hundred acres somewhere in the Caribbean to serve as something of a “city of refuge” for

desperate Christian families to flee to and to farm cooperatively in the event of a crisis. If the normal supply delivery systems of the whole western world become unreliable, it would be very convenient for a Christian family that raised chickens to have access to nearby Christian grain growers, vegetable gardeners and dairy farmers—as well as builders and mechanics. I have lived in one form or another of intentional Christian community for about 25 years, and have always had access to Christian auto mechanics, plumbers, doctors, etc. This has been a great blessing, and I would hope that, whatever happens and wherever we might end up, we will still be a part of a Christian community.

C. Skills and Physical Condition. If the cities are evacuated, former city dwellers will be uniquely unequipped and unskilled for the task of isolated survival. Most have never raised a crop or livestock, and many have never hunted (these are the ways all humans used to survive in pre-industrial times. If we find ourselves living in post-industrial times, these may again become the primary means of providing for our families). The modern urban norm of extreme specialization has left few of us knowing how to do very many things for ourselves. If you have little knowledge of basic survival skills, and cannot find the time to learn them in the next two years, I would suggest that you at least pick up a book or two about such things (Back To Basics, published by Reader’s Digest, is an excellent book of this type). If you find yourself out of a job in the year 2000, you may at that time have time on your hands to study the essential skills that will either produce your family’s needs or which will render you indispensable and thus capable of bartering labor for food, housing, etc. There is very good reason for you and your children to develop the highest degree of physical fitness that you are capable of achieving. This way, you and your older children can possibly take strenuous unskilled-labor jobs to provide necessities. Good physical conditioning has the added benefit of enhancing general health, endurance, speed and agility, in circumstances wherein such factors confer an advantage.

D. Supplies. There are many theories as to what will become of banks, the federal reserve, cash, etc. on or before January 1, 2000. The general feeling among those writing about and discussing the issue of preparedness seems to be that life after an economic disaster will be greatly enhanced by the ability to barter goods for goods. If you already produce a surplus of food or other essential products, or are skilled in some essential service that everyone needs, then you may already be prepared for a system of barter. Also, many are advising that gold or silver coins represent a safer form in which to keep your savings than are cash and electronic transfer records. While gold and silver can always be traded for food and other necessities, fiat paper currency sometimes becomes essentially worthless.

If you have no religious scruples against saving money in the bank, then there can be no reasonable objection to saving (additionally or instead) barterable commodities. Gold, silver, food and fuel are better than money in a crisis. Their value will only increase in a situation where everybody wants them and few have them. There are several companies* from which you can buy a year or more’s supply of foods packaged in air-tight, pest-proof containers which can either be eaten by your family or else bartered for toilet paper when the market shelves are bare. The great thing about turning your symbolic assets (money in the bank) into real goods is that you never have to regret your investment—even if the crisis never occurs. If there is no crisis in the year 2000, then you will spend (as usual) a certain amount of money for groceries that year. What harm is done by taking the same money and pre-buying the groceries for that year in air-tight buckets? If we are talking about rice, wheat, beans, peas, salt, sugar, maybe some powdered milk, etc., these can be eaten in the year 2000, whether by electric light or by candle light. I know that some of these precautions cost more money than some of you have. Our own family doesn’t have enough money at this time to do many of the things I am suggesting. But I am hoping to raise your awareness of where the money you would normally spend on luxuries or entertainment might better be spent over the next two years. A year’s supply of plain, wholesome, packaged food might run you, perhaps $400—$700 per person in the family. A basement accumulating these buckets over the next two years probably makes more sense than a family room with a new home theater system. Perhaps a late-model car can be sold for the price of an older car and a year’s supply of food for a family of six. The most painless way to accumulate a buffer food supply would be to simply buy a few extra cans of food every time you shop for groceries, and put the surplus aside for a rainy day.

Ask yourself what things you would wish to have on hand if there were no stores open for, say, a month. You would probably wish to have a first aid kit, flashlights with batteries, extra toothpaste, soap and cleansers, contact lens solutions, any prescription drugs that you might be dependent upon, etc. You will need a lot of toilet paper as well. It is advisable also to have some bottled water on hand for drinking, cooking and cleaning.

Also, if you can back-up your home heating with wood heat and keep sufficient fuel wood on hand to make it from January 1st to the spring, you will not need to be concerned about staying warm. A wood stove with a flat top can also double as a cooking surface if your gas or electric range is not working. If wood heat is not an option where you live, you may want to put out the minimal investment for enough “space blankets” for the whole family. These extremely compact items, which look like a sheet of aluminum foil and retain an extraordinary percentage of your body’s heat, can usually be purchased for less than $10 each from many outdoor supply sources.

It also would make very good sense to obtain some way of generating electricity for basic uses. I’m sure that our readers are aware of various alternative energy options, such as wind generators and solar panels—though a good old Coleman generator would prove more versatile and portable. If you can afford about $5000, a diesel powered system (including inverter and deep-cycle batteries) can get you permanently off the grid at a cost that is a fraction of what you currently pay the power company (H. Skip Thomsen’s book, More Power To You [BookCrafters, Chelsea, MI], explains everything you need to know about this option). If a family had more than one option available for electricity, it would make the adjustment to the loss of the power grid much smoother.

At the midnight hour (Dec.31, 1999), those who have not provided enough oil for their lamps might not find the merchants who sell oil open for business. Better to have enough beforehand. But remember that there are saints who barely survive on their meager incomes already, and who have no ability to provide a buffer for their family against future crises. It would seem good for churches to develop (as Joseph did in Egypt) a food bank for their members who are unable to afford the luxury of surplus food storage. The ideal of Scripture is: “Those who gathered much had no extra, and those who gathered little had no lack” (Ex.16:18/2 Cor.8:13-15).

Decisions with reference to some of the above options must be partially affected by consideration of precisely what kind of society can be expected to emerge from a y2k crisis. Will things get better quickly, or only after years of chaos—or will they get worse instead? What kind of challenges will the post-y2k civilization present to Christian families? Will there be local government, federal government, world government—or what? Will society turn back to God, or further away from Him? Will Christians be sought out for their counsel—or for their heads? Will the worst problems for Christians be shortages of food, marauding criminal gangs, or official government persecution?

A consideration that I find particularly sobering is that the leader of our nation, under the terms of “The War and Emergency Powers Act” (check this out on the web at http://afcomm.com/afc/report.html), has the option, in the event of a declared national emergency, to “temporarily” suspend the Constitution. Now I don’t get as teary-eyed as some do over the good ol’ Constitution, but I do wonder whether Mr. Clinton, in the year that the Constitution would require him to leave office, would find in the y2k disaster just such a national emergency as to justify such a “temporary” suspension of the Constitution—and whether, once suspended, he could think of any powerful incentives to re-activate it? Now there, it seems to me, we might have a first-class “national emergency”!

On the bright side, a y2k technological cave-in might prevent the President, or anyone else, from being able to exert any control whatsoever over the populace. Gary North thinks that nothing broader than local or county government could function after y2k. He believes there will be perhaps seven to ten years of economic chaos, followed by an America more resembling that of the 1890s than that of the 1990s. This would mean the end of the Welfare State, of the National Department of Education and the NEA, of the IRS, and of all the grandiose Big Brother-esque plans of the New World Order. This is very encouraging. But is it what the future holds? Only time will tell.

There is still the threat of China, of course. If the NATO weapons systems go haywire, only the hand of God is powerful enough to prevent China from pursuing an unstoppable course of aggression. I fully believe that the hand of God alone is more than adequate to protect the West from any designs China may have against us—my problem is in imagining reasons why God might want to protect a civilization that has spit in His face and turned its back to Him. One might well reason that y2k is itself a form of God’s judgment upon industrialized civilization. History and Scripture portray a pattern of God’s sending wave after wave of disaster upon nations upon whom He has decided to vent His wrath (e.g. Lev.26:18, 21, 24, 28/Isa.5:25; 9:12, 17, 21; 10:4/Ezek. 26:3/Rev.9:12).

We must confess not to know for sure a) if there will be a y2k crisis; b) how the matter will resolve itself; c) what society will look like a decade from now. This ignorance should not paralyze us, but should lead us to take precautions with the broadest spectrum of possible scenarios in mind, and leave the rest to God.

The one thing that is certain is the faithfulness of God to those who cast themselves wholly upon Him and who do His bidding. The advent of the year 2000 renders all slackness in knowing and doing God’s will a luxury no one can afford.

The greatest form of preparation that parents can make for the safety of their families is to commit them to God and to commit all concerns to Him by believing, submissive prayer. It is possible to “have not” because we “ask not”(James 4:2). Some things may occur with or without our prayers, but if we neglect to pray, we will never know whether a given disaster might have been averted had we only prevailed to lay hold on God. If Sodom had been spared, it would not have been so much because of the ten (nonexistent) righteous, but because of Abraham’s intercession (Gen.18:23-33). If Abraham had prayed that God would spare the city for one righteous inhabitant, Sodom might have been spared to this day. We will never know, but it could have possibly postponed a gruesome judgment that came upon thousands of men, women and children. One reason that our world has come to its present crisis is, doubtless that “there is none that calleth upon [God’s] name, that stirreth up himself to take hold of [God]: for [He] hast hid [His] face from us, and hast consumed us, because of our iniquities.” (Isa.64:7).

With reference to the y2k threat, what might informed Christians pray for? Let me make some suggestions. First, pray that God’s kingdom may come and His will be done. That God would send a reformation of the church and a revival of pure Christianity is a request that can always be counted on to fall within the category of “things God wills.” If the prayer of the apostles (Acts 4:23-30) serves as a model of appropriate prayer, then to pray for boldness, faithfulness and fruitfulness would take priority over prayer for personal safety, but there is nothing inappropriate about prayer for personal safety either (2 Thes.3:2). Additionally, as the Spirit leads, you might consider praying for the following:

1. That Christian families the world over might be spiritually prepared for whatever may come;

2. That Christian parents might not be separated from their children by “protective” governmental measures;

3. That God would clearly inform Christian parents of any course of action that He knows will better prepare them for whatever He knows is coming;

4. That Communism may fall in China (as it did in Europe) prior to y2k;

5. That you and your children might be faithful even to death.

On this final point, I should think it obvious that Christian parents make it their top priority to see to it that their children genuinely know God, and are prepared to meet the Lord triumphantly, if they were to face mortal danger during their childhood years. I realize that such thoughts are unpleasant to parents, but what do you think Christian parents in persecuted lands teach their children? Do you think it can’t happen here?

When our children reached the age of being able to understand the English language, we made a point of acquainting them with the following, unfrightening facts: 1. We are eternal spiritual persons dwelling in temporary bodies; 2. We will someday shed these bodies, but this presents no terrors to those who love God; 3. To die in the will of God and to be taken immediately into His presence is a great privilege to be looked forward to; 4. Since eternity is endless, and life is short, it doesn’t matter whether we enter that eternal bliss after a “long” life, or after a relatively “short” life. All lives are short compared to eternity. Since we have no fear of death, and have re-enforced these truths to our children by scripture and by missionary/martyr biographies, our children do not exhibit any fear of death. I do believe that they are prepared for that inevitable, universal human event, for which only neglectful parents would fail to prepare their children.

However, we do not only wish to prepare our children to die, but also to survive and to live. We think it more valuable for them to know how to produce food and clothing and to function as redemptive parts of human society than to memorize the names of all the past presidents (not that we disapprove of the latter). In the education of our children, even if we foresaw no impending crisis in y2k, Christians ought to foresee the coming crisis of adult life as sufficient cause to weight their children’s education heavily on the side of character strengths like courage, industry, integrity, compassion, humility and piety (not necessarily in that order). An education such as that commonly afforded in the modern educational system is more likely to prepare children to “make a living” than to “live.” Children who are well taught in the latter will have little difficulty with the former. In fact, they will find that “all these things” shall be added unto them, while they concentrate their energies upon the pursuit of God’s kingdom and His righteousness (Matt.6:33). Those who know how to live find that making a living is thrown in with the deal.

If your children have become accustomed to a rather affluent standard of living, one of the biggest favors you can do them (whether there is a y2k catastrophe or not) would be to wean them of such lifestyle expectations as soon as possible. Many Christian families, amazingly, have so pampered their children as to make it exceedingly difficult for them to be content “having food and raiment” (1 Tim.6:8). Though well-intentioned, parents who make materialists of their children are doing them great spiritual harm, whereas those children who are taught early-on to “let your lifestyle be without covetousness, but be content with such things as you have”(Heb.13:5-6) will be spiritually fitted for any circumstance that the future may hold (it’s hard to teach these lessons to children unless the parents have learned them themselves).

Teaching children to ignore their own denials and to have compassion on others who are suffering will render them of great value to God and to society. In any disaster (y2k or otherwise), there will never be a surplus of selfless young people pouring themselves out for those less fortunate. Would any Christian parents really be disappointed if their children were to fill the niche left vacant by Mother Teresa? Taking the children to rest homes to read to, talk to or pray with the abandoned elderly, or having them do housework or yardwork for some single mom in the church or the neighborhood, will help develop this concern for others in your children today. It will serve them well—and humanity as well—to get their attention off of themselves for a while.

Observe and hear all these words which I command thee, that it may go well with thee, and with thy children after thee for ever, when thou doest that which is good and right in the sight of the LORD thy God. (Deut. 12:28)

But thus saith the LORD, Even the captives of the mighty shall be taken away, and the prey of the terrible shall be delivered: for I will contend with him that contendeth with thee, and I will save thy children. (Isa. 49:25)

And all thy children shall be taught of the LORD; and great shall be the peace of thy children. (Isa. 54:13)

There is no king saved by the multitude of an host: a mighty man is not delivered by much strength. An horse is a vain thing for safety: neither shall he deliver any by his great strength. Behold, the eye of the LORD is upon them that fear him, upon them that hope in his mercy; To deliver their soul from death, and to keep them alive in famine. Our soul waiteth for the LORD: he is our help and our shield. For our heart shall rejoice in him, because we have trusted in his holy name. Let thy mercy, O LORD, be upon us, according as we hope in thee. (Ps. 33:16-22 )

Wait on the LORD, and keep his way, and he shall exalt thee to inherit the land: when the wicked are cut off, thou shalt see it. I have seen the wicked in great power, and spreading himself like a green bay tree. Yet he passed away, and, lo, he was not: yea, I sought him, but he could not be found. Mark the perfect man, and behold the upright: for the end of that man is peace. But the transgressors shall be destroyed together: the end of the wicked shall be cut off. But the salvation of the righteous is of the LORD: he is their strength in the time of trouble. And the LORD shall help them, and deliver them: he shall deliver them from the wicked, and save them, because they trust in him. (Ps. 37:34-40)

Yea, all kings shall fall down before him: all nations shall serve him. For he shall deliver the needy when he crieth; the poor also, and him that hath no helper. He shall spare the poor and needy, and shall save the souls of the needy. He shall redeem their soul from deceit and violence: and precious shall their blood be in his sight. (Ps. 72:11-14 )

He that dwelleth in the secret place of the most High shall abide under the shadow of the Almighty. I will say of the LORD, He is my refuge and my fortress: my God; in him will I trust. Surely he shall deliver thee from the snare of the fowler, and from the noisome pestilence. He shall cover thee with his feathers, and under his wings shalt thou trust: his truth shall be thy shield and buckler.

Thou shalt not be afraid for the terror by night; nor for the arrow that flieth by day; Nor for the pestilence that walketh in darkness; nor for the destruction that wasteth at noonday. A thousand shall fall at thy side, and ten thousand at thy right hand; but it shall not come nigh thee. Only with thine eyes shalt thou behold and see the reward of the wicked. Because thou hast made the LORD, which is my refuge, even the most High, thy habitation; There shall no evil befall thee, neither shall any plague come nigh thy dwelling.

For he shall give his angels charge over thee, to keep thee in all thy ways. They shall bear thee up in their hands, lest thou dash thy foot against a stone. Thou shalt tread upon the lion and adder: the young lion and the dragon shalt thou trample under feet. Because he hath set his love upon me, therefore will I deliver him: I will set him on high, because he hath known my name. He shall call upon me, and I will answer him: I will be with him in trouble; I will deliver him, and honour him. With long life will I satisfy him, and show him my salvation. (Ps. 91:1-16)

Websites:

http://www.y2knet.com

http://www.garynorth.com

http://pw2.netcom.com/~helliott/00.htm

http://www.year2000.com

http://www.yourdon.com

http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin/

3 www.Loompanics.com will access their web page. I would advise you that this is not a Christian publisher by any stretch of the imagination, and they publish some titles that would be offensive to most Christians.

Do you know that you are on good terms with your Creator? On the day when He calls the whole of His Creation into account, do you have any basis for believing that He will welcome you into an eternal life of peace and fulfillment, rather than consigning you to an eternity regret and grief? Do you doubt that there will be such a day? Is there never to be a just disposition of the many unredressed injustices of history? Will there be no difference beyond the grave between Adolph Hitler and Mother Teresa? Do we live in a purposeless universe, where complex, interdependent biological systems that make the high-tech creations of man seem as simplistic as an Indian arrowhead, simply arose through a “fortuitous concurrence of accidental circumstances”? You may choose to believe such lunacy, but you must do so against the protestations of your own better judgment. Such a philosophy has rightly been rejected by clear-thinking men and women since the beginning of time. “The fool has said in his heart that there is no God.” If you are among those thus described, there is little else that I can hope to say to help you.

On the other hand, if we acknowledge that there is a God, how can we know what He is like, and what He requires of us? Unless God were to initiate communication with us, how could we ever hope to answer these questions with certainty? There are many religions and religious books that claim to communicate what we must know about God. However, only one book gives indisputable evidence of being the very Word of God, and that book is, of course, the Bible. What is this indisputable evidence? It is the phenomenon of accurate prediction of future events. Of the many thousands of prophetic predictions contained in the Scriptures, the vast majority have already come to complete fulfillment in precisely the manner that the writers predicted. Only those who have never examined this evidence, or those who examine it with a resolute bigotry against the plain facts, could retain doubts as to the inspiration of the Scriptures. It is in the Scriptures that we discover God’s self-disclosure to us.

In addition to this, there is one Man whose credentials place Him far above all others who have sought to speak authoritatively about the relationship between God and mankind. The Man Jesus of Nazareth (also known as the Christ) is not just another founder of a world religion, to be ranged among the other great spiritual leaders of history. Which of them ever claimed to be the Son of God and to be equal with God? If they had made such claims, how would they have validated them? Apart from Christ, which great religious leader healed lepers with a touch, restored sight to the blind with a word, raised the dead, or gave commands to the wind and the sea and was obeyed? If you haven’t done the research, I’ll save you time. . . the answer is: None but Jesus Christ ever made such claims and then backed them up with “many infallible proofs.”

Of course, the most significant credential that sets Christ above all others is that He is the only one who arose from the dead by His own power and was thus vindicated as the true Representative of God among men. If you doubt these facts of history, then you are apparently unaware of the historical evidences, too numerous to catalog here, or else have viewed such data with a degree of a priori skepticism that you could never consistently apply in assessing other events supported by such a weight of eye-witness testimony.

The Bible indicates that all people have violated God’s laws, and stand in need of God’s forgiveness. Are you an exception? What are God’s laws? “You must love the Lord your God with all of your heart, with all of your soul and with all of your strength; and you must love your neighbor as you love yourself.” If you have ever made a life choice without concern for God’s will in the matter, then you have not loved God with all of your heart. If you have ever gossiped, cheated, coveted what was not yours, lusted for another’s wife (or husband), been angry without a cause, engaged in sexual relations outside of marriage, etc., then you have not loved your neighbor as you love yourself. This is what Jesus taught. But Jesus didn’t come to condemn the world (He said the world was already condemned before He got here!), but He came to save the world. From what? From the condemnation and eternal judgment of God.

Do you know how Jesus did this? The Bible teaches that the wages of sin is death and that the soul that sins must die. If you have sinned (broken God’s law) then this judgment applies to you. In fact, it applies to everybody, “for all have sinned and come short of the glory of God.” But now I must tell you something that none of us can fully understand: God placed the guilt for our sins upon an innocent sacrificial victim, and accepted His death in place of ours. That sacrificial victim was Jesus Christ, whom God set forth as an atoning sacrifice for our sins. But because Christ pleased His Father, it was granted to Him to rise from the dead, and subsequently to ascend into heaven (as many witnesses watched!), where He now sits as Judge at the right hand of God the Father.

If you believe this, then your sins can be forgiven and you can face any future contingencies with confidence that, whatever may happen, God forgives and accepts you, that He is watching over you for your good and will receive you for eternity after you die. What must you do? First, you must repent (meaning to change your mind and to turn from your life of sin). You must put your confidence in Jesus Christ and trust that God forgives you on His behalf. Further, you must surrender to the Lordship (ownership and leadership) of Jesus Christ in your life, seeking to obey and follow Him until the day you die. If this is what you want to do, begin reading the Gospels in the Bible, and write to me and request “The Growthbook for Fledgling Disciples.” This manual will be of great use to you in beginning your walk with God. God bless you.